Where Does the Muslim Stand in All That Is Happening—and What Is Yet to Come?

In a time when wars collide, global and regional agendas overlap, and the Muslim is pushed into aligning with one camp or another, the pressing question arises: Where does the Muslim stand? What is his position in this turbulent scene?

The answer does not begin with political analysis, nor merely with reading the balance of power. It begins with the great constants that do not change with time:

The remedy for the nation’s crises, and the understanding of what is unfolding, can only come from the source of revelation—the Book of Allah and the Sunnah of His Messenger, peace and blessings be upon him. Revelation is the standard by which events are weighed, and the compass that guides in times of trial.

Thus, the first principle that must be affirmed is that the primary reference for addressing the nation’s affliction today is a sincere return to the religion of Allah—correcting understanding, renewing commitment, and responding to His commands both outwardly and inwardly.

The Fundamental Foundation: The Heart’s Relationship with Allah

Some may misunderstand when they hear about the state of the heart with Allah, about establishing monotheism, and about understanding and living by “There is no god but Allah,” especially while alliances exchange missiles across battle lines. They may think such talk is intellectual luxury in times of war and conflict.

But in reality, this is the very foundation of victory and the key to empowerment.

Allah, Glorious and Exalted, says:
“If Allah supports you, none can overcome you; but if He forsakes you, who is there that can support you after Him? And upon Allah let the believers rely.” (Aal ‘Imran: 160)

Allah does not grant victory to a nation merely because of its numbers, its weapons, or the noise of its supporters. He grants victory when it responds to His command and fulfills true servitude to Him.

Our losses are severe because of our continuous neglect of turning to Allah, ruling by His law, honoring Him as He deserves, and following the guidance of His Prophet. Yet we still treat these as secondary matters—in peace and in war, in comfort and in times of crisis.

The existential purpose of the Muslim must remain present amidst conflicts. This is a trust upon our shoulders—one we must uphold, call to, and remind one another of. Enough neglect of fundamentals and attachment to marginal issues.

The issue is not merely surviving a war or crisis, but that the religion is entirely for Allah, that His word is supreme, and that there is no oppression on earth.

If this purpose is absent, wars become mere struggles of interests, and the Muslim becomes just a number in others’ calculations. Yet the Muslim is promised empowerment—so how should one act when Allah has promised him empowerment?

Especially knowing that such empowerment is built upon monotheism and servitude to Allah—not servitude to people or humiliating dependency.

Allah says:
“Allah has promised those among you who believe and do righteous deeds that He will surely grant them succession upon the earth as He granted it to those before them, and that He will establish for them their religion which He has chosen for them, and that He will replace their fear with security—they worship Me and associate nothing with Me…” (An-Nur: 55)

“They worship Me and associate nothing with Me”—this is the first condition for empowerment. Whoever neglects or belittles this عظيمة foundation falls into the description at the end of the verse: “they are the defiantly disobedient.”

We follow divine guidance, not worldly desires. We worship Allah alone without partners, and we have our law and methodology that we follow—in peace and in war. And their wars, at their core, are ideological—yet they do not hesitate to proclaim their beliefs openly.

Allah says:
“Judge between them by what Allah has revealed, and do not follow their desires…” (Al-Ma’idah: 49)

And reflect on His words:
“Indeed, many of the people are defiantly disobedient.”
This means that in times of testing, most people will turn away from the path. So do not be deceived by numbers, nor by widespread deception—even if it is dressed in concern for the nation.

A Warning in Times of War

What I fear most are those who belittle reminders about the purpose of existence, the trust of the message, and the guidance of the Qur’an and the Prophet during times of war—thinking such reminders weaken the nation at a decisive moment.

They risk falling into the category described by Allah:
“When you call to prayer, they take it in mockery and play. That is because they are a people who do not understand.” (Al-Ma’idah: 58)

So be mindful, O one debating amidst the noise of war, of what you say and what you belittle. A single word may lead to ruin. Proper conduct with Allah and His Messenger is the first sign of sincerity in supporting the nation.

Reminders benefit the believers—not the hypocrites or those with diseased hearts.

The Danger of Cheap Compromises

One of the greatest dangers facing Muslims today is cheap compromise in religion. A Muslim is pressured to dilute his stance, manipulate texts, hide truths, and become a promoter of ideological projects—or else be accused and excluded.

They scrutinize people over a word—whether said or not—twisting meanings to force conformity. They speak of resisting tyranny while practicing it themselves, pressuring people to compromise their faith and moral principles.

Had they made their intentions sincere for Allah, it would have been better for them. But they insisted on serving worldly gains, and thus the reality you see today emerged.

In truth, opposing the established laws of Allah only occurs when one lacks proper reverence for Him. Whoever thinks victory comes through political flattery, blind support, or empty slogans has taken the wrong path.

Yes, Muslims may benefit from global power dynamics and conflicting interests—but there is a vast difference between benefiting from them and dissolving into them.

The Muslim does not lose his ideological compass, because he possesses his own project—one that is supported by the divine laws governing the world—if he remains sincere, prepares, strives, and acts.

A Call to Wakefulness

Let me repeat this as a call of reminder to those who are heedless, clinging to external powers under the excuse that one enemy is worse than another.

The issue is not “who is worse.” The issue is the unchanging laws of Allah—laws that no one can resist or overturn.

Among the strangest things recorded in our time is the one who tries to challenge these divine laws—seeking to subject them to personal desires and limited understanding.

O people, these are just equations that favor no one:
What hands have put forth and what souls have earned determine the outcome.

Do not think you can save an oppressor from the consequences of his ظلم, nor rescue a wrongdoer from a fate shaped by his actions.

These laws do not break for anyone.
Whoever does not learn them willingly will be taught by the harsh lessons of time.

How can one who has been forsaken grant you victory?
And how can one who failed himself fulfill your hopes?

Wake up.

The laws are in motion, justice stands firm, and outcomes are the fruits of their causes.

What you do not establish yourself will not be established by others.

Enough arrogance and denial.

Allah says:
“Arrogance upon the earth and plotting evil—but evil plotting only surrounds its people. So do they await except the way of the former peoples? You will never find in the way of Allah any change, nor will you find in the way of Allah any alteration.” (Fatir: 43)

Lessons of History and the Burden of the Future

Many outcomes of the ongoing conflicts may carry opportunities for Muslims. Yet these opportunities are worthless if the nation repeats the same patterns of coercive rule, or continues the audacity of sidelining divine law, denying the blessings of Allah, allying with oppressors, and leaning upon them—while neglecting the true conditions of empowerment and divine support in a struggle where victory comes only from Allah, who grants it to whom He wills.

History has taught us that failing to learn from the past becomes a burden on the future. History itself is not sacred—but the Sharia is sacred, and it is the path that must be upheld and judged by.

For this reason, the prophetic warning came clear: “Until you return to your religion.” A phrase that needs little explanation: that the Muslim must be where Allah has commanded him to be—dignified in his faith, not cheap or humiliated before his enemies. True honor cannot arise from humiliation; submission is only to Allah, the One, the Absolute. That alone is the path to dignity. But attachment to worldly life exposes one’s inner doubt.

To achieve the necessary return to the religion of Allah after decades of coercive rule, one must first free oneself from dependent thinking.

The first task for the nation today is to rid itself of the mindset of dependency, humiliation, and defeatism.

Many people think with the minds of others and repeat analyses that distance them from their ultimate purpose. Many prefer to live as pawns for their enemies or as patchers of their earlier misguided choices—busy beautifying tyrants and the projects of oppressors instead of striving seriously to break chains and carry responsibility with trust in Allah, gathering the causes of empowerment.

Every insistence has a price—either for or against you.

“If they had been true to Allah, it would have been better for them.” (Muhammad: 21)

Among the greatest obstacles to revival is when the nation is forced to choose between two seemingly opposing projects that ultimately lead to the same result: that the nation remains follower, not a leader.

Thus, it is made to choose between submission to one oppressive project or another, as if the options are limited to two forms of injustice.

This is one of the greatest intellectual and political disasters of our time. It kills independent, pioneering thought, blinding people to real solutions and opportunities to build a third, more promising path. It is as if their hearts have been sealed, unable to understand. Whoever allies with or leans toward oppressors loses clarity of vision—and that is the greatest loss.

This mindset prepares people for dependency—either on one global project or another—while being made to believe that thinking outside this framework is impossible or dangerous. This is deception, a grave ignorance, and a destructive Having a bad opinion of Allah.

Therefore, the Muslim should not be preoccupied with comparing oppressors. What matters is seeking the causes of revival within oneself and one’s nation —trusting in the promise of Allah, strengthening reliance upon Him, abandoning سوء الظن, learning from the divine patterns in history, and gathering the causes of strength and empowerment—with humility before Allah, gentleness with believers, and dignity through faith against disbelief and hypocrisy.

Allah says:
“Is one who establishes his foundation upon piety from Allah and His pleasure better, or one who builds upon the edge of a collapsing cliff, so it collapses with him into the fire of Hell? And Allah does not guide the wrongdoing people.” (At-Tawbah: 109)

The first foundation of empowerment and victory is firm monotheism and certainty that victory comes from Allah alone—not from Iran, not from America, nor from any human power.

The reverence of monotheism, the Sharia of Allah, and the obligation of uprightness must be restored. Religion must be devoted purely to Allah alone—not to groups, symbols, leaders, or states—so that hope is cut off from all but Him. One’s path becomes complete devotion to His pleasure. It is as if the divine laws themselves are training people toward this truth.

If people do not realize this complete sincerity to Allah, they are left to their own desires and deprived of His support and pleasure—this is compounded loss and clear misguidance.

Rejecting False Dichotomies

Those who adopt an arrogant stance toward believers must abandon the corrupt duality that dominates discourse today: “Either you are with us or against us.” Many follow this blindly—out of ignorance, arrogance, and shallow thinking.

But the Muslim does not accept such coercion. His position is clear: we stand with Allah and His Messenger.

Wherever truth is, we are with it. Wherever Allah’s command is violated, we leave it—no matter who stands behind it.

Action, Not Spectatorship

The Muslim’s role in this stage is not that of a spectator cheering one side or another. It is the role of an active agent who prepares himself and reforms his reality.

This begins with essential principles that lead to real change—this is the true opportunity, and whoever wastes it will be replaced, for the law of replacement does not change.

The Muslim must attend to every detail within himself:

• Proper conduct with Allah and a sincere return to Him; implementing His law and restoring its authority as clearly commanded.
• Reforming the heart and establishing monotheism upon the prophetic path—strengthening reliance on Allah, not attachment to human powers.
• Preparing for what is coming by spreading knowledge, strengthening people’s connection to Allah and His law, reviving hearts and insight, and mitigating future chaos.
• Comprehensive striving in all its forms:
• • Through knowledge and Education, uniting people upon monotheism and their ultimate purpose.
  • Through الدعوة, calling people to truth and delivering the message in all circumstances.
  • Through reform, correcting the corruption caused by deviation from religion and subjugation to tyrants.
  • Through speech, enjoining good and forbidding evil—reviving hearts and preserving steadfastness.
  • Through wealth and aid, supporting the needy and strengthening the community.
  • Through preparation and readiness for future struggles with sincerity, knowledge, and discipline.

These are the frontlines of Muslims today. Neglecting them is not an option. They require independence, clarity, sincerity, and dedication. When sincerity and initiative are present, the results are blessed.

The Muslim must not remain a passive observer but become part of a movement of change that begins within the soul—strengthening the relationship with Allah—and manifests in action across all fields of striving.

Everyone has a role: whether in the rear or in leadership, each must fulfill their responsibility with humility and sincerity.

All are engaged—preparing, striving, giving, competing in good, responding to Allah’s command, guided by one reference and one law.

Victory in one field supports victory in others—they are interconnected systems.

Striving in times of decline is an even greater obligation.

Taking Lessons from Events

What is happening in the world today must be a school of reflection—not merely a subject of debate. The Muslim does not worship worldly systems or become deceived by limited human strategies. He seeks the guidance of Allah in everything.

He knows that victory comes only from Allah, and that supporting His cause is the path to victory:

“O you who believe, if you support Allah, He will support you and make your feet firm…” (Muhammad: 7–9)

And the path is clear:
“And those who strive for Us—We will surely guide them to Our ways. And indeed, Allah is with those who excel.” (Al-‘Ankabut: 69)

Guidance is not achieved by neglecting the rights of Allah and His Messenger, nor by twisting texts to beautify tyranny. It is the inevitable result of sincere striving and effort—of one who acts, hoping for Allah’s mercy and acceptance, relying on Him alone, and thus is supported by Him and by the believers.

Possible Scenarios of the Coming Conflict

As for the potential conflict between Iran and the Zionist–Crusader alliance, it is part of a complex web of struggles. This confrontation may take multiple forms, as the region is characterized by increasing geopolitical complexity, where regional and international interests intersect, raising the likelihood of scenarios that could significantly reshape maps of influence and balances of power.

Possible Scenarios

Based on current data and available analyses, several main scenarios can be anticipated:

Scenario One: A Short War Ending with the Destruction of Iran’s Military Capabilities

This is the scenario sought by Israel and the United States.

It would involve subduing Iran by striking its centers of power: destroying missile stockpiles and launch platforms, dismantling military infrastructure and nuclear capabilities, weakening the Revolutionary Guard through infiltration and pressure, then halting the war after achieving these objectives and forcing Iran into negotiations over its nuclear program—possibly even leading to the establishment of a less hostile government.

Strikes have already begun targeting missile facilities and underground military shelters to reduce Iran’s ability to retaliate. In addition, a severe blockade and an already struggling economy, combined with a population prone to erupt in anger at any moment, make Iran’s options difficult.

Likely outcomes:

• Iran remains a state but significantly weakened, possibly under a new and more compliant government.
• Its regional influence declines; its proxy networks become strained, forcing it to focus inward on recovery and reorganization.

Scenario Two: Escalation into a Broad Regional or Even Global War

The conflict could expand to include other countries in the region, especially those hosting proxies of either side or directly affected by the conflict, or those tied into broader alliances. In this case, the war could escalate into a major global confrontation, especially if nuclear powers become involved due to reckless decisions or actions.

Potential developments:

• Shifts in alliances, as states reassess or form new partnerships.
• Disruption of global shipping routes, especially through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab, leading to major global economic consequences.
• Activation of proxy forces and mercenaries, possibly resulting in invasions and regime changes serving either Israeli or Iranian expansion.
• The possibility—though not certain—of nuclear weapons use, with severe radioactive consequences for the region.

Outcome:

• War spreads across multiple countries, with intense and sudden strikes, disruption of energy and trade, and catastrophic global consequences including the collapse of states and systems.

Scenario Three: A Prolonged War Without Resolution

The conflict may drag on, turning into a prolonged, unresolved war. Ground invasions may occur to topple the Iranian regime—either via proxies or direct U.S. involvement. Meanwhile, proxy groups, militias, and mercenaries intensify the fighting.

Countries already suffering internal instability may further deteriorate, possibly fragmenting or becoming severely weakened as centralized support systems collapse.

Most vulnerable countries:

• Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon in particular, though others could also be affected.

Key features:

• Increased influence of militias and armed groups.
• External interventions exploiting chaos, including possible territorial expansion.
• Severe humanitarian crises and displacement.
• Continued warfare through airstrikes, assassinations, cyberattacks, and proxy conflicts.
• Massive economic exhaustion, potentially paving the way for another scenario.

Scenario Four: International Competition Over Resources and Influence

The Arabian Peninsula and the Greater Levant remain focal points for global powers due to their resources and strategic importance.

Possible outcomes:

• Proxy wars intensify as major powers support local actors.
• A regional arms race escalates.
• Sovereignty erodes, alliances blur, and the region descends into chaotic, lawless conflict resembling medieval conditions.
• Governments may collapse, and populations may revolt as prolonged war and resource competition take their toll.

Scenario Five: Collapse or Change of the Iranian Regime

This is one of the objectives of decision-making circles in Washington and Tel Aviv. It could occur through sustained military pressure, weakening Iran’s ability to launch missile or drone attacks, strengthening domestic protests, encouraging internal coups, or even through a ground invasion.

However, many experts believe regime collapse is not easy due to the strength of state institutions and the Revolutionary Guard. Still, the situation remains open to surprises.

Scenario Six: Internal Chaos or Civil War in Iran

If the Iranian regime weakens significantly under sustained pressure, internal power struggles and regional rebellions could erupt, potentially leading to widespread instability and civil war.

Currently, no alternative authority appears capable of governing Iran’s vast and diverse territory with the same cohesion.

Possible outcome:

• Iran turns into a prolonged conflict zone, possibly ending in fragmentation, with regions or ethnic groups gaining autonomy or independence.

Scenario Seven: Global Economic Escalation

Even without major military expansion, a global economic crisis could emerge.

Triggers may include:

• Closure of the Strait of Hormuz or disruption in Bab al-Mandab.
• Broader global economic fallout.
• Economic collapse driven by prolonged or intensified warfare.

Scenario Eight: Nuclear Escalation or Rapid Iranian Nuclear Development

If Iran perceives an existential threat, it may accelerate nuclear weapon development or seek assistance from nuclear powers such as Russia, China, or North Korea.

The introduction or use of nuclear capabilities would represent one of the most dangerous possible developments—even for the United States.

Scenario Nine: War Ends Through a Political Settlement

This is the least confrontational scenario. All parties eventually come to the negotiating table, and the conflict is resolved through a deal.

Possible terms:

• Restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program.
• Partial lifting of sanctions.
• New regional security arrangements.

Overall Summary

These scenarios can be grouped into five main trajectories:

• A limited strike that weakens Iran, followed by a ceasefire
• A broad regional war that could draw in the entire world
• A prolonged war of attrition leading to instability and state fragmentation
• Regime change or internal chaos in Iran, possibly leading to partition
• A political settlement after escalation

Ultimately, the outcome remains uncertain. While many analyses speak of a potential global war, it is not inevitable—though escalation into a large regional war remains highly plausible due to the number of involved actors.

Opportunities for the Sunni Community in All Scenarios

The potential scenarios carry immense challenges, but they also offer opportunities for the Sunni community to achieve advancement and independence. The ability to seize these opportunities depends on having a sound understanding of reality, a responsible level of preparedness, and the capacity to build internal unity and develop self-reliance. The future is not shaped by wishful thinking, but by serious work, strategic planning, and firm determination.

In all cases, the clash of major powers in the region may open gaps and opportunities that could serve the interests of Muslims.

These can be summarized as follows:

• Leveraging international competition in their favor by avoiding dependence on a single power and breaking free from the trap of subordination. Escaping this dependency is one of the first steps toward empowerment and independence—whether people realize it or not.
• Diligently acquiring the means of strength, especially in light of what has been observed regarding the impact of drones in exhausting advanced military arsenals. The cost disparity is striking: intercepting a single drone worth $20,000 can cost over $4 million—an approximate ratio of 200 to 1. This highlights the importance of developing widely deployable, low-cost offensive technologies that provide a strategic advantage and reduce the effectiveness of expensive, high-precision Western weaponry. This also includes adopting long-term, attritional tactics similar to guerrilla warfare strategies.
• Developing internal capabilities, including economic, military, and educational strength, to reduce reliance on external support and enhance independence. This requires cultivating self-reliance, leadership, and initiative, as well as building independent programs suited to the needs of the community in producing capable and trustworthy leaders and individuals. This includes both spiritual and practical training, even if on a small scale—whether through institutions or individual efforts.
• Establishing a correct understanding and responsible preparation, while building connections among Muslims across the global map based on unity of causes and destiny. This requires avoiding destructive partisanship and narrow loyalties that prevent meaningful unity. Instead, it calls for forming strong, unified alliances that protect shared interests without falling into dependency on regional or global powers. External sponsors often impose control and distort objectives, whereas shared principles unite sincere efforts.
• Preparing for a phase of instability, which requires early planning and appropriate responses. With the potential collapse of systems, there must be proactive plans to fill leadership, institutional, and societal gaps. This includes identifying and preparing capable leadership in advance.
• Maintaining a clear and realistic vision, free from emotional bias or wishful thinking. This vision must be grounded in a deep understanding of the geopolitical landscape, including the interests, strengths, and weaknesses of regional and global powers, and their impact on the region.
• Setting strategic objectives, with clear and achievable short-, medium-, and long-term goals that serve the advancement and independence of the Sunni community.
• Taking advantage of the decline of certain powers, by filling strategic vacuums in their regions—provided there is prior preparation, clear vision, and organized leadership to prevent chaos and ensure responsible governance.

This subject requires extensive detail that cannot be fully covered here. What is presented are only brief outlines emphasizing the necessity of preparation, coordination, and readiness for all possible scenarios. The experiences of Muslims in this field are numerous and significant, yet what is currently lacking is the consolidation of plans and recommendations within dedicated strategic research centers, staffed by sincere individuals working solely for higher principles, whose studies serve as tools for empowerment.

The opportunities presented by current global tensions will not translate into real gains unless there exists a community that is spiritually, intellectually, politically, and militarily prepared—rooted in firm belief and unwavering conviction. Without this, there can be no empowerment or liberation, except by divine will.

The principle of replacement remains constant: neglecting responsibility does not mean the end of the entire community. There will always be a group that upholds the truth with sincerity, unity, and certainty, fulfilling the divine promise through dedication and alignment with enduring principles.

“And We have already written in the Psalms after the Reminder that the land shall be inherited by My righteous servants. Indeed, in this is a message for a people devoted to worship.”

Ultimately, all outcomes serve the cause of truth, but losses come in the form of deprivation and destruction when falsehood is supported.

The Inevitable Cost

It must be recognized that this phase will carry heavy costs, partly as a result of long periods of neglect, injustice, and attachment to worldly pursuits. These costs cannot be avoided except through sincerity, repentance, discipline, and striving for what is right.

The path to the future does not begin with waiting for the outcome of wars, but with correcting the foundation: that all devotion and purpose be directed to God alone.

Amid these major transformations, one must be cautious of those who attempt to mislead or shake confidence. Do not be deceived by the appearance of falsehood or absorbed into the agendas of others.

Rather, hold firmly to authentic foundations: revelation, monotheism, and the divine methodology that once built a civilization that led the world when it was sincere—even if materially weaker, it was supported by divine strength.

Remain steadfast on the straight path as commanded, without inclining toward injustice or aligning with wrongdoing. Seek your place among those who act, not those who merely observe. Keep your guiding principles alive within you, and pursue your role in building truth and justice.

No matter how fierce the storms, the future belongs to those who remain steadfast, take the means of progress, and strive for a higher purpose.

Do not allow anyone to make you forget that divine will ultimately determines all outcomes:

“So be patient. Indeed, the promise of God is true. And let not those who lack certainty shake you.”

And when confusion and noise increase, remember this decisive guidance:

“You will see those with disease in their hearts hastening toward them, saying: ‘We fear that a misfortune may strike us.’ But perhaps God will bring victory or a command from Him, and they will regret what they concealed within themselves.
And those who believe will say: ‘Are these the ones who swore by God with their strongest oaths that they were with you?’ Their deeds have become worthless, and they have become losers.
O you who believe, whoever among you turns back from his religion—God will bring forth a people He loves and who love Him, humble toward the believers, firm against disbelievers, striving in the cause of God and not fearing the blame of any critic. That is the favorof God, which He gives to whom He wills. And God is All-Encompassing, All-Knowing.
Your ally is only God, His Messenger, and those who believe—those who establish prayer and give charity while bowing.
Whoever allies with God, His Messenger, and the believers—indeed, the party of God will be victorious.
O you who believe, do not take those who mock your religion as allies—whether from those given the Scripture before you or from the disbelievers—and be mindful of God if you are truly believers.”

True believers do not surrender, nor do they bow except to God. Their outcome is certain: either victory or martyrdom.

All affairs belong to God. O God, use us in Your cause and do not replace us. O God, the night of oppression has grown long—so support Your sincere servants with victory, Fath, and empowerment that revives hearts in true devotion.